The Art of Clear Thinking - Group Consensus

As the manager of your very own fantasy football team, you soon come to realise the sheer complexity of something seemingly as simple as picking a combination of 15 players for your squad, picking 11 of your chosen few to play every week and bestowing the honour of the captain’s armband upon your very best player. In reality, there are hundreds of players to choose from, a multitude of factors to consider and the restrictions of a budget that never seems to be large enough. Once you consider that you also have the option to make transfers every week, this can be a little too much to handle, even for those of us who are seasoned players and the usually self-assured amongst us.

Naturally, we look to others for guidance. We seek people with equal or superior football knowledge to discuss our conundrums with in the hope of gathering more information, canvassing others’ opinions and equipping ourselves with as much knowledge as possible in order to make the very best decision possible. Sometimes, in desperation, we even seek the knowledge of those who aren’t particularly knowledgeable or even remotely interested in football but who may have that tidbit of information that will hopefully prove to be the final piece of the puzzle.

Many end up on various fantasy football sites, blogs and forums where thousands of people gather to share information, discuss findings, debate the best courses of action and thrash it out throughout the week and all the way up to that cruel deadline on a Saturday morning. A quick look through the electronic pages can allow us to gauge the opinions of many and asking people to rate our team, transfer plans and captaincy choice seems an ideal way to help us in making our own decisions. Certain trends often appear in discussions between users and more often than not certain views become prominent and widely accepted as the best ones. Is this because it is inevitable that by using the collective knowledge of the group, everyone will arrive at the best possible solutions? Or is there something else at play?

‘Social proof’ is the term given to the phenomenon where individuals in large groups look at the actions of others in order to gauge the correct behaviour or course of action in any given situation. It is said to be common in situations where there is a lot of uncertainty - both within the individual and amongst the group. The result of this phenomenon can lead to large groups of people quickly forming a consensus that may in fact be mistaken. The individuals within the groups may not actually possess much new information, despite the rational move to gather information from others in order to make an informed decision.

An even more problematic consequence of this is the acceptance of this consensus by individuals due to the belief that those conforming to this consensus are in fact correct. This can lead to individuals arguing in favour of the consensus without gathering and fully examining all of the available information. Of course, more credit is given to ideas with multiple sources and the problem snowballs. This can in part explain the concept of herd behaviour and the perceived fickle nature of many posters. Despite the best of intentions, many fall for this error in judgement.

Browsing electronic pages full of FPL related discussion shortly after a round of fixtures, you will no doubt see this phenomenon for yourself - people discussing their latest knee-jerk reactions to the latest result; bandwagons forming for certain players to be transferred in; campaigns starting for certain players to be transferred out. Despite most people not having had chance to gather, review and reflect upon all of the information available, consensuses are formed. The pressures of missed points, mini-league places squandered and the inevitable price changes of the players in question only add to the panic.

This phenomenon isn’t limited to the initial time after the fixture however. Those who don’t have chance to gather information earlier log in during the build-up to the next deadline in order to discuss transfers, captaincy choices and team selection. Potentially uninformed consensuses that have long been formed are reinforced as the debate rages on all the way up to the deadline. Rumours about team selection and fitness become set in stone. Bandwagons continue to roll while campaigns for the sale of other players power on. Certain players become elevated to god-like status while others become unfashionable and consensuses on captaincy choices solidify amongst the ambiguity.

This phenomenon is even more problematic when you consider that, in the case of FPL, the consensuses are often formed on the perceived actions and behaviour of others. Although someone may seem to be utterly convinced as to one course of action, they may not actually follow it themselves and are merely adding to the fervour.

It is clear that not all consensuses reached are incorrect or are not based on any significant information or knowledge. It’s entirely common for people to carefully consider all of the information available to them, discuss with others and then form a consensuses based on the best possible information available. One conclusion that can be taken from this however is that the consensus of the group may not be the best course of action, especially when there is a large element of uncertainty. Do your own research, seek new information from others and make your own informed decision. After all, it’s your team and you’ll only be more frustrated if you follow the consensus and it goes wrong!

Further reading:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_proof

*Dobelli, R. (2011) Die Kunst des klaren Denkens ('The Art of Clear Thinking'). Munich: Carl Hanser 

This article is the latest in a series called "The Art of Clear Thinking" which looks at various errors in reasoning that cause many of us to come to illogical conclusions which may in turn lead to bad decision making. I hope to enlighten and entertain in equal measure and who knows - it may even help you to improve as an FPL player!